Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Why the Miami Heat could lose in the NBA Finals

While most blogs are highlighting the strengths of the Eastern and Western Conference champs in their Finals preview, Lone Opinion decides to take a step back (pun intended) and focuses on the concerned teams' weaknesses and problems. In this post, the Miami Heat.

After some early season struggles, the Heat's Big Three are finally getting their act together and are living up to expectation. Poised to win it all, here's a rundown of things the Heat have to address, otherwise, they'll never hear the end of Mark Cuban.

The Big Three
The Heat's greatest strength is also their greatest weakness. It doesn't take a genius to tell you that when Dwayne Wade, Lebron James and Chris Bosh are all playing well, the Heat are almost unbeatable. However, in the event that one or two of the Big Three struggles, or gets into foul trouble early, the Heat will have big problems on the offensive end. And considering that two of them, Bosh and James, will be guarding Dirk Nowitzki, and with Wade bothered by some issues about his shoulders, there's a chance that the Big Three can get taken out of some games.


Massive Mavs
Joel Anthony, at 6'9", has been the Heat's starting center during the playoffs. He, along with Bosh (6'10") and Udonis Haslem (6'8") will be sharing the paint with three 7-footers in the form of Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood. Because of their size advantage, the Mavs can make rebounding difficult for the Heat. Not to mention Chandler and Haywood are decent shot blockers. Coach Erik Spoelstra has other bigs at his disposal (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Erick Dampier, Jamaal Magloire and Juwan Howard) but all these guys are too old for comfort. The Mavs aren't young themselves, but at least their bigs aren't next to immobile.

Benchmark
The Mavs are probably one of the deepest teams in the league, and that's minus Caron Butler. Coming off the bench is perennial Sixth Man of the Year contender Jason Terry, cat quick J.J. Barea, former All-Star and two-time three-point champ Peja Stojakovic, and reliable center, Haywood. On the Heat side of things, you got Udonis Haslem, who just recovered from injury and is still feeling his way back into the game, Mario Chalmers and Mike Miller. In terms of player rotation, that's one man less for the Heat. Outside of the Big Three, Miami's players aren't used to seeing a lot of minutes. This is where Dallas can exploit their manpower and wear out the rest of their Eastern Conference counterparts. In addition, the Mavericks bench has proven that they can win some games down the stretch. Can't say the same about the Heat.

Lebron is in love with his J
Hands down, the best player for the Heat right now is the guy wearing jersey no. 6 (sorry D-Wade). When James gets his step, he can drive past his defender, or ram into anyone, for a deuce. He's got some post moves too. And when the defense collapses on him, you know that he's a capable passer/playmaker. But let's not forget that this point guard stuck in a power forward's body can also shoot from the outside. He went 3 out of 6 from downtown in their last outing against the Bulls in the Conference Finals. When James is hitting on all cylinders, as the case with any player in the league, he's unstoppable. But the thing is, even when he's struggling, he'll still force his jumpshot. Lebron is good and all, and taking jump shots is part of his repertoire. But he has to understand that the Heat needs him to attack the rim and finish, play decoy or fish for fouls. And while he's at it, Mike Bibby, Bosh, Miller, Chalmers or, if the situation calls for it, Eddie House, would be hanging around the perimeter, waiting for him to dish the ball so they can take the open J. He can still take jump shots, provided that it's what the defense would give him. But to make it his go-to move is a no-no.


Noob coach
Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle isn't exactly new to the Finals ambiance. As a player, he's been to the big dance and won it all with Larry Bird, albeit, in a limited role. As a coach, he's led the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers deep in the playoffs. Spoelstra, on the other hand, was merely a video coordinator before getting to where he is now. It's only his third time in the post-season. His first two trips resulting into first-round exits. Not to take anything away from Spo, he's got a lot on his plate already, handling and managing all the egos on the team, but all that inexperience could surface come the Finals. He might make bad decisions that could cost the Heat the title. The Big Three can pout all they want, but in the end, Spo has the final say on who plays and who doesn't. If he can't tell a situation that calls for some Howard or House, the Heat is doomed.

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